Three days ago, as the PM was delivering a speech on the economy, I tweeted this..
They lowered projections to 6.7% in FY18, Mr PM. Follow the right people instead of buffoons & bigots on your TL & you will get right info. https://t.co/6vtLh3cNk5— Srinivasan Ramani (@vrsrini) October 4, 2017
I stand by what I said. The RBI had only earlier that day
revised the growth estimates for FY2018 to 6.7% (down from 7.3%)
while the PM simply suggested that there was going to be 7.7% growth
in the coming quarters which in my opinion was cherry picking of data
and misleading.
Many complained on my timeline saying that I was wrong showing RBI
data for the FY while the PM spoke of “coming quarters”, but they
missed the larger point on the revision of FY18 numbers even as I
insisted that the PM can’t cherry pick an upcoming quarter and that
too, Q4. In my responses to some of the tweets, I erroneously
mentioned that the coming quarters included Q1 and that Q4 was four
quarters away, while I should have said Q2 (whose results are not yet
out) and Q4 (results) is three quarters away. I promptly deleted that
tweet when I realised the error. But my larger point holds.
The other point I made about the PM following bigoted people on
Twitter is well documented by people such as in here.
As others - here,
here
and here
have pointed out, the PM's speech presented a disingenuous argument
about the state of the economy. After all, the last six quarters has
shown a steady fall in growth numbers, which seems to have
precipitated in the last three quarters in particular - a clear sign
that the demonetisation decision has severely affected the economy,
coupled with the problems that followed the hasty implementation of
the GST.
There have been several articles in many outlets - including in The
Hindu - that have pointed
to the disingenuousness of the response of the government to findings
about the quantum of demonetised cash returning to the bank and its
implications, the state
of the unorganised sector, the crashing
of commodity prices due to disruptions in cash flow in the supply
chains, the distress to farmers because of these price falls..
Then there are a number of stories about the problems faced by small
traders and businessmen due to the GST's hasty implementation and
trouble
with the GSTN, unhappiness over excess bureaucratic work and so
on. Some of this is of course teething troubles, but some of it is
also due to the haste in which the implementation was done, which is
reflected in the multiple changes suggested and made after its
implementation.
The ill-effects of the slowdown of the economy is also reflected in
the jobs market- where several reports,
economists and even
industry captains have suggested that there has been a
deleterious effect. Other problems such as under-investment by the
private sector and the low
level of gross fiscal capital formation have persisted for many
months now.
News outlets-including The Hindu - have carried out different views
on how to handle this economic slowdown - some have spoken to the
need
for a fiscal stimulus to address primarily the infrastructure
bottlenecks and ; some have suggested caution
on the stimulus front and arguing for structural reforms instead;
while others have said that the stimulus is still required despite
structural weaknesses and disruptions in the supply side as this is
the only way to address the lack of job growth.
In order to make an effective intervention, those in government must
realise the reality that we are in (and which is a consequence of
their own problematic decisions such as demonetisation). Those
concerned about the economy must not buy into propaganda, which some
in the government and among their supporters have indulged in, to
paint a rosy picture when one does not exist.
Our job as journalists is to question the government and to keep it
on its toes to mitigate the problems in the economy which are pretty
much its own creation.
Personally, I have been part of a team in The Hindu that has
come up with 100s of data points and graphics on various issues related to public
policy, current affairs, political economy, sports, international issues, and so on.
We have as part of these graphics also pointed out to the mixed
bag impact of demonetisation that looks at the aims of the
exercise and whether they were at all reached, the declining
gross fixed capital formation over the months, the slowdown
in GDP growth over time, the gap
between the changes in crude oil prices and retail petrol prices over
time under the present regime (due to increases in excise duty)
among various other charts. All of these are short data nuggets that
add to the larger picture of what is to be done normatively by
government and some of the steps recently taken such as the Rs
2 cut in excise duty address the issues pointed out.
As someone in the serious business of journalism, I will continue to pursue critical, objective and data driven journalism despite threats and accusations by right-wing trolls and
wingnuts.
